The probability of Manchester City winning the Premier League is 70 percent! Why don’t they believe in Arsenal and Liverpool?


We look at the cal­en­dar and eval­u­ate the sched­ules.

The cham­pi­onship race in the Pre­mier League inten­si­fied to the max­i­mum: Man­ches­ter City came out on top (the gap from their pur­suers is two points), tak­ing advan­tage of the home defeats of Arse­nal and Liv­er­pool. There are six rounds to go: how will it all end?

City regained momentum in the end — a typical Guardiola story

In favor of City are sta­bil­i­ty, com­po­si­tion and, of course, expe­ri­ence. But the main thing is that Pep’s team loves and knows how to put the squeeze on their com­peti­tors dur­ing the final sprint. To some extent, this can be called Guardi­o­la’s trick.





Let’s just remem­ber the leg­endary fin­ish of the intense 2018/2019 sea­son, when Man City scored 98 points, only one point ahead of Liv­er­pool. Then every­thing was decid­ed by a pow­er­ful break­through in the sec­ond part of the cham­pi­onship: City was five points behind Jur­gen Klopp’s team, but won the last 14 rounds and took first place.

Liv­er­pool and Arse­nal give the title to Guardi­o­la, Bay­er Lev­erkusen’s gold­en match, a Roma play­er’s heart attack

In the 2022/23 sea­son, such a fierce bat­tle did not hap­pen, although many were expect­ing it, because Arse­nal did not give up the lead until the 32nd round! What hap­pened next? The Lon­don­ers col­lapsed when the cov­et­ed tro­phy was prac­ti­cal­ly in their hands, and Haa­land and Co. took 25 points in the last ten match­es. City allowed them­selves to mis­fire in two games in a row only after cel­e­brat­ing the title.

But let’s go back to this sea­son. It was at that moment, when Arse­nal and Liv­er­pool stalled, that City again engaged in sixth gear and put togeth­er a sig­na­ture cham­pi­onship move: three wins in a row and the best record among com­peti­tors in a peri­od of five match­es.

Who will Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool play in the remaining matches of the season?

After the 32nd round the super­com­put­er Opta recal­cu­lat­ed the chances for the title, and the num­bers may sur­prise: the prob­a­bil­i­ty of vic­to­ry for City is esti­mat­ed at 70%, Arse­nal at 18%, Liv­er­pool at 12%.

Why did the ana­lyt­i­cal sys­tem ruin the chances of Arte­ta and Klop­p’s teams? It’s not just Guardi­o­la’s abil­i­ty to fin­ish pow­er­ful­ly, but also the cal­en­dar.

What’s with the calendar?

With such crazy den­si­ty in the end, a lot depends on the sched­ule:

Who will Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool play in the remaining matches of the season?

At first glance, City has the sim­plest cal­en­dar — just one top match against Tot­ten­ham away. There are still obsta­cles in the form of Brighton and West Ham, but there should be no seri­ous prob­lems with the rest.

Arse­nal will once again have a dif­fi­cult time at the fin­ish line. Chelsea and Man­ches­ter Unit­ed are ahead, as well as the North Lon­don der­by, and even in the den of the ene­my. “Ever­ton” in the last round is also not a gift, espe­cial­ly if the “Tof­fees” by that time do not guar­an­tee them­selves a reg­is­tra­tion in the Pre­mier League for the next sea­son.

Liv­er­pool seems to have a slight­ly eas­i­er end­ing, but there is still the same Tot­ten­ham and Aston Vil­la away.

Mohamed Salah and Harvey Elliott. Man­ches­ter Unit­ed upset Liv­er­pool again. And made the cham­pi­onship race even more excit­ing

City and Liv­er­pool will play two match­es at home, while Arse­nal will play three. Every­one’s rivals are Tot­ten­ham, which tra­di­tion­al­ly dreams of par­tic­i­pat­ing in the title race — but not in this way.

Anoth­er impor­tant point: Guardi­o­la’s team has an FA Cup semi-final match with Chelsea ahead, so Pep will need to rotate the squad.

Final­ly, the Euro­pean Cup play­offs are in full swing. For Arse­nal and City, noth­ing is clear yet in pairs with Bay­ern and Real Madrid, and Liv­er­pool, after a 0:3 loss to Ata­lan­ta, has a great chance of mak­ing their sched­ule eas­i­er — and focus­ing their ener­gy on the final push in the Pre­mier League .

Arsenal head coach Mikel Arteta
Mikel Arte­ta.
Pho­to by Reuters

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After the defeat to Aston Vil­la, Mikel Arte­ta was asked whether this result would affect Arse­nal’s men­tal state.

“If one game can affect us like that, then we are not good enough to win the title,” the Spaniard said.

It’s quite pos­si­ble to win back two points in six rounds, but mem­o­ries of last sea­son, when the Lon­don­ers let City go ahead (also in mid-April), hard­ly add con­fi­dence.

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) and Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City). Arse­nal did not allow City to score: a goal­less draw, which Liv­er­pool is very hap­py about

What about Liv­er­pool? Klop­p’s team is cur­rent­ly in decline. And its main prob­lem is imple­men­ta­tion. In the game with Crys­tal Palace, Liv­er­pool gained 3.19 xG, but nev­er scored. Cat­a­stro­phe.

“This has hap­pened in all the last match­es,” admits Andrew Robert­son. “We need to real­ize the chances — it’s sim­ple.”

Right now, Man­ches­ter City look like the heavy favorites to take first place. But I real­ly want the intrigue in the Pre­mier League to remain until the last moment. Among the top cham­pi­onships, this is the only league that still keeps fans in sus­pense.